PROBABILITY INTRO
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
Probability is how likely an event is to occur. The study of probability is part of the statistical branch in mathematics and is one of the most studied topics in mathematics. But why study statistics and probability at all?
We 'probably' don't realise the full extent that statistics and probability play in our society. In cancer research, scientists 'trial' new drugs in the hope they can find a more reliable cure. For example, they may claim that a specific drug has a success rate of 60% in a sample (trial) of 100 people, they might suggest this figure is likely rather than guaranteed or certain.
The government performs a census on the population every 4 years (delayed when the Christchurch earthquake happened) to aid in the planning and development of large projects like transportation (rail, buses and roads), schools and hospitals. Many people probably don't realise the extent that mathematics and statistics plays in sports. The performance of teams and players are constantly monitored, producing a wealth of statistics that coaches, managers and national selectors can use to choose the best teams and the best players. Coaches and managers choose players based on past and sometimes more recent form from match statistics. This is usually because even the best professional players have their ups and downs. The success of coaches and managers also swings on team performance. The English Premier League is a good example of that as managers swap sides, sometimes each season as they compete for the top of the table.
We 'probably' don't realise the full extent that statistics and probability play in our society. In cancer research, scientists 'trial' new drugs in the hope they can find a more reliable cure. For example, they may claim that a specific drug has a success rate of 60% in a sample (trial) of 100 people, they might suggest this figure is likely rather than guaranteed or certain.
The government performs a census on the population every 4 years (delayed when the Christchurch earthquake happened) to aid in the planning and development of large projects like transportation (rail, buses and roads), schools and hospitals. Many people probably don't realise the extent that mathematics and statistics plays in sports. The performance of teams and players are constantly monitored, producing a wealth of statistics that coaches, managers and national selectors can use to choose the best teams and the best players. Coaches and managers choose players based on past and sometimes more recent form from match statistics. This is usually because even the best professional players have their ups and downs. The success of coaches and managers also swings on team performance. The English Premier League is a good example of that as managers swap sides, sometimes each season as they compete for the top of the table.
difference between probability and statistics
Take a look at the jelly beans in the jar at the top of this page. In probability we can calculate the probabilities of taking out any coloured bean at random because we counted and recorded the colours of the beans before sealing the jar.
In statistics we might take a sample of jelly beans from the jar and based on our sample estimate the proportions of each colour, their length or weight of the remaining jelly beans back in the jar which is often referred to as the population. Also of importance is that if we put the beans back in the jar (please do not eat them), and take another sample we may get different results. This is called sampling variation. So you need to learn that statistics is not always an exact science.
In statistics we might take a sample of jelly beans from the jar and based on our sample estimate the proportions of each colour, their length or weight of the remaining jelly beans back in the jar which is often referred to as the population. Also of importance is that if we put the beans back in the jar (please do not eat them), and take another sample we may get different results. This is called sampling variation. So you need to learn that statistics is not always an exact science.